This statement makes clear what Erdogan's ultimate ambition is….
Sic Semper Tyrannis
The Turks want Mosul and Aleppo "back."
Col. W. Patrick Lang, US Army (ret.), former military intelligence officer at the US Defense Intelligence Agency
This statement makes clear what Erdogan's ultimate ambition is….
We have maintained here for some time that the Turkish President Erdogan has designs for Aleppo as well as Mosul. He wants to incorporate both cities and all areas north of them into Turkey. Erdogan now publicly announced these aims:
Speaking during an opening ceremony for an educational institution in Bursa on Saturday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan compared the way that Syrians and Iraqis have been driven away from homes because of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS; ISIS/ISIL), to how Turkish people were once forced out from the same cities.
Erdogan added that the cities of Mosul and Aleppo belong to the Turkish people.
This is a serious misinterpretation of teh areas population history and of Turkey's international agreements and borders as delineated after the first world war.
Erdogan also lamented that Turkeys national leaders were born outside of Turkey's current borders. Something he implied he will strive to correct. The Greek will not be happy to hear that. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of modern Turkey, was born in Thessaloniki…Much more in the post, but this is the game-changer. Neo-Ottomanism openly declared.
Emphasis in lede.
- 'I have nothing to say about Wikileaks, other than I think we should all be concerned about what the Russians are trying to do to our election'
- Democratic nominee was responding to a question posed by DailyMail.com during a question and answer session on her plane
- Trump went on offense over the 'pay for play' agreement at a rally Friday
- Emial from Huma Abedin revealed how Clinton got King of Morocco to underwrite $12m Clinton Foundation summit
- Abedin revealed: 'The condition upon which the Moroccans agreed to host the meeting was her participation.'
- She backed out of Marrakesh event amid a human rights storm after Abedin wrote: 'She created this mess and she knows it'
The international media have provided a constant fusillade of stories and editorials (not always easily distinguished from each other) about the collapse of the Venezuelan economy for some time now. Shortages of food and medicine, hours-long lines for basic goods, incomes eroded by triple-digit inflation and even food riots have dominated press reports.
The conventional wisdom has a set of predictable narratives to explain the current economic mess. "Socialism" has failed -- never mind that the vast majority of jobs created during the Hugo Chávez years were in the private sector, and that the size of the state has been much smaller than in France. The whole experiment, it is said, was a failure from the beginning.
According to this narrative, nationalizations, anti-business policies, populist overspending during the years of high oil prices and the collapse of oil prices since 2014 sealed Venezuela's fate. Adherents to this explanation say the downward spiral will continue until the chavistas are removed from power, either through elections or through a coup (most pundits don't seem to care which).
The reality is somewhat more complicated.…
Given this situation, it is clear that serious reforms are necessary in order to restart the economy. The Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) has assembled a team of economists, headed by former president of the Dominican Republic, Leonel Fernández, which has presented a set of proposals. (Full disclosure: I am one of the members of this team.)
The most obvious change that is needed is to unify the multiple exchange rate system. This should be done quickly, and in one step. The government can auction a fixed amount of dollars each day, with the price determined by supply and demand. Although allowing the currency to float seems scary to many people, the price of the dollar would undoubtedly stabilize at something considerably less than the current parallel market rate of about 1,000. A floating rate is also the only way to avoid wasting scarce foreign exchange reserves in a futile attempt to maintain an overvalued fixed rate.…
This means that the hard part of the adjustment -- the one that often requires people to reduce their living standards in order to sharply reduce imports -- has already been done. It is relative prices now that have to be adjusted in order to recover. The result is that Venezuela can return to growth rather quickly, without the prolonged recession that neoliberal adjustment normally creates.…So what are they waiting for?
Much of the left -- including people inside the government and among the base of its party, the PSUV -- rejects these economic reforms. They think it is a "paquetazo" (package) similar to International Monetary Fund (IMF) or neoliberal reforms that increased poverty in the past. They see the fixed exchange rate as socialistic and a floating exchange rate as a "free market" reform. But in reality, the informal economy for dollars constitutes one of the most destructive "free markets" that exists; it is the "capitalismo salvaje" ("savage capitalism") that Hugo Chávez used to denounce. (Chávez himself successfully floated Venezuela's currency in February 2002, and dollar reserves actually increased despite serious political instability.) And we can recall that the IMF supported fixed, overvalued exchange rates with disastrous results in Argentina, Brazil, Russia and a number of Asian countries in the last years of the 20th century.
There is nothing neoliberal about a program in which the government creates employment, protects wages from inflation (which has not happened since inflation began to skyrocket nearly four years ago), subsidizes food and essential items on a large scale, and protects people generally from the burden of the adjustment of relative prices.
Yet there are those on the left who seem to think that Venezuela can recover without fixing its most fundamental and destructive imbalances.….The problem is that the traditional left is clueless.
Low interest rates may have helped the country survive the terrible financial crisis of 2008. They could also steer us through the fallout from the Brexit vote in June – a view certainly held by Bank of England boss Mark Carney who quickly sanctioned a cut in the base rate to 0.25 per cent.
But seven and a half years of low rates have caused nothing but pain for savers who depend on the interest from their cash accounts to maintain a decent standard of living.
DTN UK: Low rates and rising inflation mean more misery for savers: Here’s what the Chancellor must do to end... https://t.co/m9Wnpds0CG— DTN UK (@DTNUK) October 23, 2016
Bella speaks languages belonging to three different groups: Indo-European (Russian, French, English, Spanish, German), Semitic (Arabic) and Sino-Tibetan (Chinese) – which in short means that they are very, very different to each other and lack structural similarities.
That doesn’t stop Bella from thinking clearly in each language, however, and she correctly answered age-appropriate questions on the show….
The specialist added that it’s too early to tell whether Bella is truly a polyglot or not, because it’s natural for children to pick languages up – it’s how they evolve with age that matters.What is amazing is that we think this is amazing.
“In pre-revolutionary Russia, if a child from a noble family couldn’t speak three-four languages by the age of five or six, it was a shame to take him out. Then in school Latin and ancient Greek were added to those. So five-six languages were a standard package for an educated youth back in 19th-century Russia,” Semenovich said.My grandfather, who lived in the 19th century Austrian-Hungarian Empire, spoke five languages. His first language was German but he knew Slavic languages, as well as English.
China has overtaken the U.S. as the biggest spender in Apple’s iOS app store.
Mobile analytics and research firm App Annie said this week that Chinese consumers spent $1.7 billion on Apple-sanctioned mobile apps in the third quarter, or about 15% higher than the nearly $1.45 billion spent by Americans during the same period.…
This week, Mearsheimer, a living classic of political realism, attended a discussion at the Valdai Club Conference Hall in Moscow, which brought together scholars, diplomats and journalists.
During the debate, Mearsheimer outlined the ongoing tensions as a conflict between the two perspectives of international relations, the realist and the liberal internationalist, with the latter still dominating in the western world. Liberal interventionism has the upper hand in academic debates in the United States because of the unprecedented might and influence that Washington gained after the end of the Cold war, and with it, the commitment of the US political establishment to global dominance, according to Mearsheimer.
“We wanted to dominate the entire globe,” Mearsheimer said. “The United States was the indispensable nation, which stands taller and sees further.”
According to the Mearsheimer, this position is based on three premises: the country is incredibly rich, incredibly secure and its military force allows it to intervene around the world without alienating society.
This almost unlimited use of military force, leading to local wars every two-three years is foolish, Mearsheimer said. Political realists like him and Stephen Walt from Harvard call for restraint, but so far to no avail.…
While liberal internationalism remains the dominant school of thought in the United States, Western Europe and countries like Japan and South Korea, political realism has long ago taken hold in Russia and China, according to Mearsheimer.
“As a realist in a liberal internationalist world, you’re a fish out of water. Intellectually, I’m much more at home in China than I am in the United States […] and, by the way, I’m much more at home here in Russia. Culturally, I don’t speak a word in Russian, it’s a foreign culture to me, just like the Chinese culture, but intellectually, most Russians, like most Chinese, speak realpolitik,” Mearsheimer said.…
“Russia operates according to a realist playbook. The United States operates according to a liberal interventionist playbook.”
The key question for the realist paradigm is what the United States’ strategic interests are, Mearsheimer posited.…
The Philippine foreign secretary said on Saturday that the "little brown brother image" has thwarted the Philippines' growth and development, adding that separation from the United States is demanded in pursuing an independent foreign policy.
"It implies breaking away from the debilitating mindset of dependency and subservience - economically and militarily - that have perpetuated our 'little brown brother' image to America, which has stunted our growth and advancement," Perfecto Yasay wrote on his Facebook page.Ecns.cn
One year ago ... I put up my preprint. No journal has accepted it yet ...
Hard breaking in.Abstract
A general information equilibrium model in the case of ideal information transfer is defined and then used to derive the relationship between supply (in- formation destination) and demand (information source) with the price as the detector of information exchange between demand and supply. We recover the properties of the traditional economic supply-demand diagram. Infor- mation equilibrium is then applied to macroeconomic problems, recovering some common macroeconomic models in particular limits like the AD-AS model, IS-LM model (in a low inflation limit), the quantity theory of money (in a high inflation limit) and the Solow-Swan growth model. Information equilibrium results in empirically accurate models of inflation and interest rates, and can be used to motivate a “statistical economics”, analogous to statistical mechanics for thermodynamics.
From my point of view, the conceptual issues here are simpler than you’d guess from the shouting. It comes down to two questions. First, how much control does the central bank have over the terms on which various economic units can adjust their balance sheets by selling assets or issuing new liabilities? And second, how many units would increase their spending on goods and services if they could more easily make the required balance sheet adjustments? Obviously, these questions are not straightforward. And they have to be answered jointly — to be effective, monetary policy has to reach not just the elasticity of the financial system in general, but its elasticity at the points where it meets financially-constrained units. But in principle, it’s simple enough.…JW goes on to show how conventional approaches to dealing with these "simple" questions are simplistic. Economies are granular rather than homogenous, dynamic rather than static, complex rather than simple.
The whole question, it seems to me, is made more confusing than it needs to be by two bad habits of economists. First is the tendency to think of the economy as a tightly articulated system, with just a few degrees of freedom.…
The second vice is economists’ incorrigible tendency to mistake the map for the territory.…Both of the oversimplifications seem to result from assuming ergodicity.
A perpetuity is an annuity that has no end, or a stream of cash payments that continues forever.
The inability of the UN to provide aid during the current ceasefire in Aleppo, and of the people of eastern Aleppo to leave via the ‘humanitarian corridors’ provided for them, demonstrates the truth of what The Duran – notably our contributor Afra’a Dagher, who is Syrian and who writes from Syria – has been repeatedly saying: there are no “moderate rebels” in Syria.
The story of the Aleppo ceasefire and of the ‘humanitarian corridors’ can be told quickly enough.
The UN supported the ceasefire and sought to use the ‘humanitarian corridors’ to send aid convoys into eastern Aleppo. The Jihadis in eastern Aleppo fired at the convoys, and the movement of the convoys has stopped. The result is that no aid has got through.
As reported previously, the Russians and the Syrians reached an agreement for 900 Jihadi fighters to leave eastern Aleppo by way of the ‘humanitarian corridors’. However when these fighters attempted to do so, they were fired on by the more militant Jihadis belonging to Jabhat Al-Nusra, Al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch, which is in control of eastern Aleppo. The result is that this withdrawal of Jihadi fighters has also failed to take place.
A group of civilians also tried to leave eastern Aleppo through the ‘humanitarian corridors’. They too were prevented from doing so by the Jihadis in eastern Aleppo.…
What the ceasefire has however done is demonstrate not just the utter intransigence of the Jihadis in eastern Aleppo, but that Jabhat Al-Nusra – ie. Al-Qaeda – does indeed run the show there. Staffan de Mistura, the UN official who was recently claiming otherwise, has been proved wrong.
None of this of course is going to change the way the situation in Aleppo is being described in the Western media. There it will continue to be a story of defenceless civilians in a gallant besieged rebel city being brutally bombed by murderous Russians.…But it is all Putler's fault.
This is one of the very rare cases where the EU’s big two – Germany and France – have failed to get what they wanted.Hollande is already toast, but this was particularly damaging for Angela Merkel politically. Even her foreign minister was in opposition.
But there are not one, but two big trends in liberal economic thinking. One wants to modify the economic thinking of the past few decades, and the other wants to rip it up. I expect to see a lot of the economic debate in the coming years play out not between the left and right, but between these two strains of thought.More controversy on the way. Will MMT finally get a hearing?
Seven tips for interpreting macroeconomic data.Milken Institute
I discussed in an earlier post on Brexit how to think about international agreements and the constraints on state action they entail in terms of democratic legitimacy. Since that discussion has relevance beyond Brexit, I've pasted the relevant part here below. The basic point is this: the fact that an international rule is negotiated and accepted by a democratically elected government does not inherently make that rule democratically legitimate.…Another paradox of liberalism: Just because a policy decision has been arrived at "democratically" does not imply that the policy is democratic (of the people, for the people, and by the people).
One potential leader of a peace movement would be Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, a 35-year-old military veteran who is one of the few members of Congress to offer an insightful and courageous critique of the dangers from an interventionist foreign policy. But Gabbard would be putting her promising political career at risk if she challenged a sitting Democratic president, especially early in Clinton’s White House term.
Yet, without a modern-day Eugene McCarthy (the anti-Vietnam War Democrat who took on President Lyndon Johnson in 1968) to rally an anti-war movement from inside the Democratic Party, it is hard to imagine how significant political pressure could be put on a President Hillary Clinton. Virtually the entire mainstream U.S. media (and much of the progressive media) are onboard for a U.S. “regime change” operation in Syria and for getting tough with Russian President Vladimir Putin.I expect Gabbard to oppose liberal interventionism very strongly. She has already burnt her bridges to the Democratic establishment, and her political future lies with the future rather than the past.