Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Budget deficit rises to $120 billion in October


This is typically portrayed as "bad news" by the mainstream, but in reality, looks like short term "good news" for the economy (story at Yahoo!):
The Treasury said on Tuesday the October deficit was $120 billion, larger than economist forecasts for a $114 billion gap and up from $98 billion in October of 2011. Growth in expenditures outpaced rising receipts, deepening the deficit. Outlays grew to $304 billion from around $262 billion in the same month last year while receipts rose to $184 billion from $163 billion.
Yahoo here is reporting the YoY figures, where the Treasury experienced rising tax receipts, which is indicative of economic strength, while at the same time increasing outlays which should fuel continued stronger economic activity going forward.

For the MoM, as reported in the Monthly Treasury Statement, receipts are down significantly while outlays have surged significantly which is indicative of a short term injection of $NFA and is "good news" for the economy.

But any short term "good news" here may be short lived as we are within $200B of the "debt ceiling" which once reached, will put a limit on outlays going forward as Treasury at that point will have to limit outlays to only receipts plus balances obtained via redemption and re-issue of any maturing previously issued  US Treasury securities.

That is, zero $NFA injection and the moron-induced "10 dogs after 8 bones" dog-fight is on for real, as all we citizens turn on each other in civil warfare, or beg, borrow or steal to obtain the mathematically  insufficient and now scarce USD system balances to be able to pay interest on loans, fund corporate retained earnings and purchase foreign sourced goods.

It is interesting to note that the MTS is reporting a $75B SURPLUS in September which coincided with the recent equity market top.

1 comment:

Clonal said...

Matt and Tom, you might like this series of articles by JJ Dewey The Economy – One Last Chapter

very good sections on Fiat currency vs Gold standard