Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Dmitry Orlov — How to start a war and lose an empire


Dmitiry Orlov parses the US-Russian relationship.
It's a new, mixed-mode sort of war. It's not a total war to the death, although the US is being rather incautious by the old Cold War standards in avoiding a nuclear confrontation. It's an information war—based on lies and unjust vilification; it's a financial and economic war—using sanctions; it's a political war—featuring violent overthrow of elected governments and support for hostile regimes on Russia's borders; and it's a military war—using ineffectual but nevertheless insulting moves such as stationing a handful of US troops in Estonia. And the goals of this war are clear: it is to undermine Russia economically, destroy it politically, dismember it geographically, and turn it into a pliant vassal state that furnishes natural resources to the West practically free of charge (with a few hand-outs to a handful of Russian oligarchs and criminal thugs who play ball). But it doesn't look like any of that is going to happen because, you see, a lot of Russians actually get all that, and will choose leaders who will not win any popularity contests in the West but who will lead them to victory.…
Club Orlov
How to start a war and lose an empire
Dmitry Orlov


11 comments:

mike norman said...

Choose leaders who will lead them to victory? Like Putin? The only reason Western sanctions (dictated by US) have any bite whatsoever is because Putin ignores policy that could directly neutralize them. Indeed, his actions have strengthened the sanctions and allowed the US to gain the upper hand.

PeterP said...

So preventing Russia from stealing territory is to "dismember it geographically"?

I also coulnd't help but chuckle about Russians "choosing leaders". When was the last time there was a free election there?\

PeterP said...

Typical Soviet gall:

"Ukraine (...) is now truly a defunct state, with its economy in free-fall, one region gone and two more in open rebellion, much of the country terrorized by oligarch-funded death squads"

Of course he forgot to add the death squads are from Russia and the "gone province" was stolen by Russian army as Putin admitted.

We also learn that Putin was asking Poland to dismember Ukraine in 2008.

Matt Franko said...

Peter I think that illustrates the wisdom of term limits...

Bush is in comfortable retirement giving interviews about "the old days dealing with Putin bragging about his dog" while Putin is still in there trying to hold on... pretty sad for Putin...

The pressure eventually just gets to these people and they crack... look at Putin: never even smiles just dour all the time...

Again, makes the case for term limits imo... let the next generation take over... and give the former majesterial people a rest...

Ryan Harris said...

There is humor in all this rhetoric. Can you imagine, any circumstance of doing business with Russians where they gave you natural resources "practically free of charge?"

Russians always demand the highest price, and then end up charging 10% more in a completely unexpected way too. Practically free. hah.

Tom Hickey said...

If one follows Putin and recent history, Putin began as an ally of liberalization and was promoted by Yeltsin. Putin began to lose popularity as Russian sank into neoliberal poverty under the rule of the oligarchs until Putin woke up to his falling poll numbers and reversed course away from the big city liberals whence he had arisen, turning toward the rest of the country, over 80% of the population, that the city folks regard as "backward." He got rid of many of the oligarchs and tamed the Russian mafia that was running the country into poverty. Now he has an approval rating of almost 90%. The Western dream of replacing Putin by making him unpopular enough to be overthrown by the liberal "fifth column" still in place is looking ever more remote.

If Putin and his people understood monetary economics they could really be giving the Atlanticists the finger. But even so, things are looking worse for the EZ. The sanctions have just exacerbated the problems that the neoliberal eurocrats have generated and now nationalism is beginning to surge again across Europe, which adoption of the common currency was supported to end permanently.

This has been a huge blunder on the part of the Atlanticists, who are desperate to jam through neoliberal globalization regardless of the social costs. There's no doubt that there is a good deal of pecuniary, power, and territorial interest in this, but I think that many of them are guided by a perverted notion of liberalism and really think that they are on the side of "freedom" and "eventual peace through making war."

Ignacio said...

Tom I think a lot of them are true believers, and amongst them a lot of "useful fools". Have you heard some of the moralists "ordoliberals" in Germany for example (not to say Ayn Rand lovers in USA)? Really scary stuff how that people has blind faith in their own ideologies even if they do not add up mathematically, this is Pol Pot level of blindness and faith in their own ideology, the sort of crap that let's you ruin millions of lives without regret. We are living the capitalist equivalent of Mao's "cultural revolution".

Is all over the place: people in love with "credit" (private debt) and asking for more of it, with endless corporate corruption and cronysm, with rigged markets and financial ponzis, with endless race to the bottom of labor, with rising poverty and inequality, with globalization without any check and balances. There isn't a coherent school of thought behind it any longer, is a series of mantras and thoughts directing policy and actions and behind it is all the same stuff: everything is ok if you can squeeze a bit more profit out of the economy. And then we have bureaucrats and politicians which are either accomplices or pussies unable to enforce any sort of justice to stop it.

Really, really scary stuff if you think about it, the quantity of morons in power compared to the total elite "cadre" is ever rising and does not seem to have an end. There is "peak idiocy" in humanity? Peak idiocy may mean total chaos in the not remote future as the system completely collapses.

Tom Hickey said...

Paraphrasing Randy Wray, when people have a lot to gain from being wrong, the presumption is that they are not morons but interested.

Whatever, it is pathology that often becomes sociopathy as the social cost globally demonstrates.

Ignacio said...

You can condition yourself to believe in something blindly if you have a lot to gain by doing so, as long as you have something to gain.

I wouldn't say this evolutionary trait isn't bad in huge societies like ours. it may work for hunter-gatherers in small tribes which are cohesive enough, but it certainly doesn't for us.

Aristocrats before the French revolution were pretty proud of themselves and their position, didn't end well for them thought. This is why I think this is a manifestation of 'peak stupidity' which is shown over and over again in history, elites getting too comfortable with an unsustainable path and thinking it's all fine blinded by their own self-conditioning just to get caught surprised when everything implodes. Sound like total stupidity to me and lack of awareness.

PeterP said...

Matt,

And guess who did away with term limits there? That's right: Putin!

Sure he was hurt by neoliberalism shoved down Russia's throat in Yeltsin times, but the fact remains that Putin instead of modernizing Russia is starting imperial warms of conquest while shrouding himself in a mantle of defender of local populations.

This Orlov guy is worth reading, if you want to understand the Soviet mindset. It is still alive, undergoing a huge revival under Putin.

PeterP said...

btw, I left a comment at Orlov's site. Guess what, others appeared but this one happens to be stuck in moderation. Soviet love of the free press...