Sunday, July 26, 2015

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard — Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

A secret cell at the Greek finance ministry hacked into the government computers and drew up elaborate plans for a system of parallel payments that could be switched from euros to the drachma at the "flick of a button" .
The revelations have caused a political storm in Greece and confirm just how close the country came to drastic measures before premier Alexis Tsipras gave in to demands from Europe's creditor powers, acknowledging that his own cabinet would not support such a dangerous confrontation.

Yanis Varoufakis, the former finance minister, told a group of investors in London that a five-man team under his control had been working for months on a contingency plan to create euro liquidity if the European Central Bank cut off emergency funding to the Greek financial system, as it in fact did after talks broke down and Syriza called a referendum.

The transcripts were leaked to the Greek newspaper Kathimerini. The telephone call took place a week after he stepped down as finance minister.…
You'll want to read the rest of this even though it is a nice Sunday and you have other things to do.

This looks like the true story from Yanis. International intrigue.

The Telegraph
Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Also

This is more complete than the Telegraph article based on it.

Ekathimerini
Varoufakis claims had approval to plan parallel banking system
Xenia Kounalaki

39 comments:

Kristjan said...

What does he mean his sidekick had access to the hardware, bout not to the software? That means you don't have access.
It's hard to know what to make of It.

Anonymous said...

Kris, I don't see that in the article. Which paragraph are you referring to?
I had no idea Varoufakis had the balls to do something like this. Looks like Tsipras was the pussy keeping him from fighting back.

Ryan Harris said...

He audio recorded the meetings with the institutions and documented the words of Schauble and the other lads. Brilliant.

Anonymous said...

Kris,

I found the relevant passage. Varoufakis is saying he as Minister controlled the machines but had no authority to make software alterations and didn't want to ask for permission.

Kristjan said...

Ben, in the second article he says they planned on hacking into the system.

If Schäuble understands the system needs fiscal transfers then they trying to push for federalism through back door and not naming It federalism. The nightmare that has been going on In Europe is precisly because of this, they think people are stupid and commitees and commissions can decide for them. However they cannot do It without referendums in member states. I read some articles about our constitution and lawers are saying that ESM was pushing It already on border line with our (Estonian) constitution. To the degree that troika has overtaken Greece, It cannot happen in Estonia without referendum. Integration cannot go any further without people's consent. They might close down our banking system to get the consent though :)

Tom Hickey said...

In other words, he reported to YV that they would have to hack into software that didn't belong to Greece and over which YV had no control as the Greek finance minister. YV doesn't seem to have realized that beforehand.

lastgreek said...

A week after Varoufakis took over the ministry, he said the friend telephoned him and said he had “control” of the hardware but not the software “which belongs to the troika.”

I don't want to come across as snarky but this -- and if it is to be believed -- comes across as a Homer Simpson moment ... "Doh!"


P.S. This Pritchard is one helluva "fly on the wall."

Unknown said...

lastgreek, I wonder what is the purpose of YV talking about this at this juncture. I am sure that this is somehow meant as a chess move in the current political turmoil going on within Syriza and in the Greek Parliament.

lastgreek said...

YV doesn't seem to have realized that beforehand.

"In over his head... There's nothing there but a computer with a spreadsheet."

-- Mosler 2 weeks ago on learning that YV was planning to "seize control of the Bank of Greece from the ECB."

He basically repeated the same thing in a radio interview last week -- that both YV and the Troika did not understand how a modern economy works.

Tom Hickey said...

The obvious question is who leaked and why? It appeared first at ekathimerini.com but was quickly picked by Ambrose for maximum distribution.

International intrigue.

The bombshell explodes at the end of the ekthimerini article.

The way he [Schaeuble[ described it to me [YV] is very simple. He believes that the eurozone is not sustainable as it is. He believes there has to be some fiscal transfers, some degree of political union. He believes that for that political union to work without federation, without the legitimacy that a properly elected federal parliament can render, can bestow upon an executive, it will have to be done in a very disciplinary way. And he said explicitly to me that a Grexit is going to equip him with sufficient bargaining, sufficient terrorising power in order to impose upon the French that which Paris has been resisting. And what is that? A degree of transfer of budget making powers from Paris to Brussels."

Emphasis added.

Unknown said...

lastgreek, from what I gather, YV did talk to Mosler. And the steps you would have to take to control the monetary system are precisely what has been outlined in the various leaks, including those in Lambert Strether's take on this at Naked Capitalism. Mosler simplifies when he says that "It is a spreadsheet on a computer." Yes that is true, but only as a simplistic statement when trying to make somebody understand the monetary system. Even understanding double entry accounting is not that easy, even though it is simple and keeping books is definitely not that easy, even though it consists of simple repeated tasks.

Anonymous said...

Tom,

The problem with a source like this is the speaker is relating past events stream-of-consciousness with all the memory alterations that implies. Varoufakis may well have understood he had no official control of the software and it just didn't come across that way during the call.

Kristjan said...

"lastgreek, I wonder what is the purpose of YV talking about this at this juncture. I am sure that this is somehow meant as a chess move in the current political turmoil going on within Syriza and in the Greek Parliament."

People were talking about him coming back. What could be a better intro than revealing how things really were? Just guessing, he doesn't want to go back to his boring academic job? Krugman writing about Syriza being not competent for not having a plan B. So Yanis is saying they did have a plan B. That endless talk about primary surpluses and how large they could be was just for background. :) For mainstream left he has saved his face no matter what he says.

Tom Hickey said...

The problem with a source like this is the speaker is relating past events stream-of-consciousness with all the memory alterations that implies. Varoufakis may well have understood he had no official control of the software and it just didn't come across that way during the call.

That's very possible, in which case he was willing to hack in from the get-go.

One way to interpret the exchange was that the person that YV had recruit reported that he was a far in as he could go on the Greek side without hacking into the troika system. YV would have had to reply at that point whether to do it then, or wait until the button was to be pushed if it came to that.

Unknown said...

Kristjan, I am fairly sure that this is not a face saving ploy by YV, but plays into a larger game.

Kristjan said...

Varoufakis told the Daily Telegraph that the quotes were accurate but some reports in the Greek press had been twisted, making it look as if he had been plotting a return to the drachma from the start.

“The context of all this is that they want to present me as a rogue finance minister and have me indicted for treason. It is all part of an attempt to annul the first five months of this government and put it in the dustbin of history,” he said.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/26/greece-yanis-varoufakis-secret-plan-raid-banks-drachma-return

Kristjan said...

What is hard to believe for me is that Schäuble will not quit Grexit plans and therefore Greece needs to be prepared. Schäeuble's plan is coordinated Grexit.

Unknown said...

Kristjan, I was talking of the orignal teleconference where YV spoke. I believe that the call was coordinated by the former British Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont. So, I will go along with Tom Hickey's highlights, and assume, that this has to do with British and French politics, and the Ekathimerini leak to aim at Greek politics.

Kristjan said...

Sounds believable unknown

lastgreek said...

I've been following YV's blog from its inception, and each and every time he was asked whether he would go into politics his answer was always an emphatic no. He basically said that he'd be lousy at being one. And we knew what that meant -- not the type to stoop to the levels we're accustomed to seeing professional politicians stoop to stay in power. What changed his mind? I sincerely believe that it was solely for altruistic motives -- he thought he was the man to turn things around :)

YV anecdote:

Once I asked YV on his blog about illegals in Greeceit; in other words, Greece can't afford to keep them so they must be deported. It was a pertinent question, but now that I look back at it I feel ashamed for not only referring to desperate human beings as illegals but also for not caring to understand their desperation. Well, YV rightly castigated me for my callousness. I never forgot that exchange. Here was an atheist telling me, a Christian, what it truly means to be a Christian. So, let me add that no matter what is said about YV, and Mosler and others have chimed in on his handling of the crisis, etc., YV is a good man. Of course, now that he has had a crash course on what it takes to be a politician, what it's like to be under the prying eyes of the media and public .... ;)

Matt Franko said...

Maybe YV has an idea for him to achieve higher office...

Do they allow bitcoin in the EZ? If so I don't see how a truly parallel drachma system would be illegal...

This part: "Of course this would be euro denominated but at the drop of a hat it could be converted to a new drachma,” he said. "

How can you "convert" a EUR balance into a drachma balance???? You cant...

Once a EUR balance is issued it is a EUR balance... a "new drachma" balance would have to be issued independently of any previously issued EUR balances...

They have to meet previous pecuniary obligations (ie liabilities) they took on in EUR ... and separately run a new drachma system along side it...

You cant "convert" a EUR into a drachma... let the 2 forms of govt issued liabilities exist independently within their own separate systems..

Matt Franko said...

It sounds to me like they hacked into the system (illegal btw so somebody has to probably go to jail...) and had designs like: if an entity had 50K EUR in an account in a Greek bank at some point they would "convert" that into 50K drachma... you cant do that...

If they want to turn on a new drachma system and issue a new drachma that would NOT be the way to do it.. they need to start to issue new drachma liabilities independent of whatever was going on ex post with the existing EUR system...

lastgreek said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Kristjan said...

Matt, my understanding was that Greece could not issue parallel currency (start taxing in it) once Syriza signed the first austerity package when troika was renamed institutions etc. Troika would have pulled the plug. The country has been taken over by troika.

lastgreek said...

Dan Lynch brought up leadership, or lack of leadership, in SYRIZA in a comment he made in NC.

Interesting he should bring it up. YV in his blog once praised FDR's great leadership and how he had the "Noos" (the word he used; in Greek roughly "the presence of mind," "the good sense," "the brains, damn it!") to do what it takes to do the right thing. No mention was made of FDR needing a mandate ... just leadership ;)

Jose Guilherme said...

"And he said explicitly to me that a Grexit is going to equip him with sufficient bargaining, sufficient terrorising power in order to impose upon the French that which Paris has been resisting". - Yanis Varoufakis, as cited by Ekhatimerini

Frankly, this seems far-fetched.

Why on earth would the German Finance Minister betray to his colleague from a rebellious periphery country the secrets of his country´s supposed strategy against France?

Matt Franko said...

Kristjan one would have to look into that but perhaps they couldn't 'pull the plug' if the system was separate and internal to Greece...

Its like Joe Firestone waxed in his podcast with Mike: 'how many Divisions does Schauble have?"...

You could stand up a new drachma system and have it compete with the EUR system for adaptation in Greece internal ... which ever system seems to be operating better/ more justly would win out ie "survival of the fittest".. .. should be fine with any Darwinist....

Matt Franko said...

"at the drop of a hat it could be converted to a new drachma"

this would be a true default...

Left people are always apt to renege...

Putin: Ukraine will move the nat gas for 15% of product: gas goes to $13 >>> Putin reneges...

Chavez: US oil majors will build out Venezulean infrastructure for 25% of product: oil goes to $140 >> Chavez reneges...

YV: Greece establishes 300b EUR in liabilities >> renege by converting all EUR balances in Greece to a new drachma 1:1

Left people are always apt to renege on previous commitments ... this is what irritates the right wrt the left.... the left will renege at the drop of a hat and this drives the right crazy... you CAN'T renege the left has to get this thru their thick heads...

The left has to fight this tendency of theirs and stop doing this ...

lastgreek said...

Left people are always apt to renege on previous commitments ... this is what irritates the right wrt the left....

Dreamers those lefties ;)

I had a quick glance at SYRIZA'S 40-point manifesto. And I noticed that they just reneged on point no.38: Abolition of military cooperation with Israel

From The Jerusalem Post, July 19, 2015:

Israel, Greece sign status of forces agreement

Israel and Greece signed a status of forces accord in Tel Aviv on Sunday that offers legal defense to both militaries while training in the other’s country.... Israel has only ever signed a similar accord with the US.

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Israel-Greece-sign-status-of-forces-agreement-409492

Tom Hickey said...

You can say what you want about the Bolshies and Maoists but they got the job done. The contemporary pseudo-left is worthless.

NeilW said...

"And the steps you would have to take to control the monetary system are precisely what has been outlined in the various leaks"

The main issue is the TARGET2-Greece system which is how the various banks clear with each other in the Greek banking system. That is run on an outsourced arrangement. The Bank of Greece owns the process, but it is run on the systems of the French, German and Italian central banks.

The main risk is that the central banks will take their ball home and shutdown TARGET2-Greece, in which case the internal clearing of the Greek banks would become problematic. Again though the solution is to obtain an injunction at the high court under European Law preventing them from taking this action and making them liable for damages if they do so. The outsourced arrangements are a contractual matter.

The Greek reluctance to use the courts is rather strange.

Ignacio said...

These courts are controlled by the same people controlling the ECB, at best they could achieve an enduring battle meanwhile being shut down of the Target2 preventively hence collapsing the Greek payment system meanwhile.

It's not an easy position to hold when you have an entire continent bullying you.

NeilW said...

"These courts are controlled by the same people controlling the ECB,"

If they are, then getting them to pass judgement gives you more political justification to make the break.

I would have got the injunctions in early in the negotiating process, because then you'd know what you're up against. If the judiciary enforcing the treaty are acting in a neo-liberal fashion, then you are wasting your time against it.

This refusal to get a declaration of what is and isn't the law helps nobody.

Unknown said...

Neil-

Where did you read about the Greek bank clearing system being run on the computers of the French, German, and Italian central banks? If true, that definitely complicates the Gruro option. Greece cant force the other countries' NCBs to type IOUs onto their spreadsheets on behalf of the Greeks. Per Bill Mitchell's Fridays posts, I thought that the target2 system was built on top of the individual NCB clearing systems (international fixed fx), meaning each country was still essentially running its own payment systems. I didnt know that Greece shut their own domestic payments system down in 2000.

Ignacio said...

I agree it was a critial mistake not to go to courts over all this fiasco from day one. Ie. the ECB abusing their powers through the ELA and not following their only true mandate (a functioning payment system).

Is very strange indeed, but I guess pussy Tsipras was avoiding open confrontation with "the creditors"/"the institutions".

Ryan Harris said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jose Guilherme said...

It may be useful to have a closer look at the way the TARGET2 system works in order to guarantee that a bank transfer from Greece to another eurozone country (say, Germany) will take place.

Suppose the transfer is in the amount of 10,000 euros.

When a Greek citizen or a Greek company transfers that amount to Germany, their commercial bank account will show the following accounting entries:

Assets: - 10,000 (reserves)
Liabilities: - 10,000 (deposit)

And the Bank of Greece will show these entries:

Liabilities: - 10,000 (reserves)
Liabilities: + 10,000 (due to the Bundesbank)

At the end of the day the 10,000 euros "Due to the Bundesbank" become 10,000 euros "Due to the ESCB - European System of Central Banks".

This is the TARGET2 liability that enables the sum of 10,000 euros to leave Greece in the direction of Germany. It will pay only the 0.05% MRO (Main Refinancing Operations) interest rate - its principal will never have to be "paid" to the ESCB.

So, if the ECB blocks this automatic entry (meaning, it expels Greece from TARGET2) the transfer will not be completed and the euro funds will be blocked in Greece.

They will become a special kind of "euro", only valid inside the Greek territory and thus worth much less than the "normal" euros in bank accounts elsewhere in the eurozone.

A more detailed description of the TARGET2 mechanism can be found here (pages 4 to 7):

http://pt.slideshare.net/joseguilherme56/target2-and-rollover-of-portugals-public-debt-feb-1-2014-jose-g-q-ataide

NeilW said...

"Where did you read about the Greek bank clearing system being run on the computers of the French, German, and Italian central banks?"

It's how TARGET2 is run. The computers are *owned* by those three central banks, and they run *separate* systems for every other central bank in the TARGET2 system.

So the Italian Central bank computer people run TARGET2-Greece for the Bank of Greece, but the Bank of Greece operates the system (which is running on Italian computers).

So there is a separate NCB system for each central bank, but those central banks don't own the computers and network infrastructure the system runs on.

Unknown said...

Matt,
From the Varoufakis tapes, the hack was to get the taxpayer ID's - the taxpayer ID's were under Troika control, and not under the control of the Finance Ministry. The Taxpayer ID's were used to set up a parallel payment system that could be denominated in Euro and/or Drachma. This would enable payment by the Greek Government to its citizen's and taxpayers. This could then by means of apps etc. could be made into an economy wide banking system.

You should also remember that Varoufakis developed economic systems for massively large games for the game maker Steam. So this would totally be in character. It is not at all what you have suggested.
I have posted the links to the Varoufakis recording on a newer Varoufakis thread